Private Market Update August 2025
From the ashes: Rise of new unicorns signals a changing private market ecosystem
In the aftermath of a forest fire – or a market downturn – the bleakness can feel eternal. But inevitably, seasons change and new growth begins to sprout, nourished in part by the remnants of what came before. The opportunity to grow is now available in this transformed ecosystem, where those that failed to adapt have fallen, leaving richer soil and access to the sun in their wake. And a new dynamic emerges where more resilient species can flourish. The shift will mark the start of a new generation.
You get it.
By late 2021, the economic spark that had sent private market valuations sky-high,1 ignited a full-blown correction2 – and private markets felt the heat. By 2023 pricing was volatile, and at various points during the year median valuations plummeted more than 60% from prior rounds (see 'Premium/Discount to Last Funding Round' chart below). Fundraising dried up. Zombiecorns roamed. Some startups failed outright. Others were stripped for assets.3 A few – charred but alive – cut burn and regrouped, awaiting the right moment to re-emerge.
That was then.
Today, there are encouraging signs of life emerging from the forest fire – and maybe one of the most hopeful is the modest rise in new unicorns – 24 total – born in Q2 of 2025. This is slightly more than in any previous quarter since Q3 2022. The number of new unicorns has been creeping up since bottoming out at just six in Q4 of 2023.
These newly valued companies aren’t just in artificial intelligence (AI). They range across sectors including networking, robotics, healthcare and electric transportation reflecting a diverse ecosystem emerging from the ashes.
On average, unicorns4 minted in 2025 took 6.76 years to achieve that status, raised $188 million per round and, as of July 31, 2025, had an average valuation at $1.6B – at an average 3.12x step-up from their prior round.
The largest raises include the jaw-dropping $2 billion (yes, billion) seed round by Thinking Machines Lab, founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati5 valuation – (is ‘instacorn’ a thing yet?).
Large rounds proliferated. Maplight Therapeutics secured more than $370 million in a Series D to support Phase 2 trials of its Schizophrenia and Alzheimers drug. And energy storage company Lyten brought in $350 million to fuel the electric revolution.6
And there may be more where that came from. Certificate of Incorporation (COI) documents filed on several other companies suggest big rounds in the works, with Harbinger, an electric vehicle company, raising a $500 million Series C Function Health7 for its digital health platform focused on longevity – less than a year after closing a $53 million Series A.8 And, in late-June, Agility Robotics raised $400 million to fund its humanoid robots.
It’s not just the mega-deals making noise. These unicorns span a wide range of sectors –from EVs and robotics to biotech and energy – signaling that private capital is once again seeking growth across a broader spectrum of innovation.
AI remains the dominant theme, no doubt. Pure-play AI companies account for 14 of the 46 unicorns minted so far this year, with another 10 AI-enhanced9 startups incorporating AI as a meaningful part of their core value proposition – even if they’re officially classified under other sectors.
While AI remains a driving force – powering over half of 2025’s unicorns – a broad cross-section of sectors is taking root – highlighting that there are some signals that suggest that private capital is flowing once again into a wider variety of growth stories. And while AI continues to capture the lion’s share of investor imagination (and dollars), it’s clear that the resurgence in unicorn creation is not confined to large language models alone.
That suggests not just a rebound, but a rebalancing of the private market ecosystem.
The private market extended gains, beating public benchmarks in July
The private market continued its strong run in July, outperforming both the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500—reference the chart below. The equal-weighted Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) posted an impressive 8.0% return, while the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) gained 4.2%. By comparison, the Nasdaq-100 rose 2.4% and the S&P 500 advanced 2.3% over the same period.
Performance in both private market indices was boosted by Figma’s IPO, which surged 250% on its first day of trading,10 delivering a major tailwind to venture-backed company valuations. However, FAPMI's gains were tempered by the 36.9% decline in CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) following its announced $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific (NASDAQ: CORZ).11
| Broad Market Performance Comparison Chart | L1M | QTD | L3M | YTD | L12M |
| Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) | 8.0 | 8.0% | 9.1% | 46.7% | 50.5% |
| Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) | 4.2 | 4.2% | 29.5% | 44.5% | 51.8% |
| SPY | 2.3 | 2.3% | 14.3% | 8.5% | 16.2% |
| QQQ | 2.4 | 2.4% | 19.0% | 10.8% | 20.6% |
Forge Data through 07/31/25
Consumer sector gets a moment in the sun while AI takes a breather
In a reversal from recent trends, the Forge Consumer basket led all six of Forge’s thematic baskets in July with a strong 8.5% return, while the AI basket,12 after eleven consecutive months of gains, declined 4.2% — its first negative month in nearly a year.
Consumer basket names were lifted by a major move from food supply chain company GrubMarket, which jumped 236.5%. Meanwhile, the AI basket was weighed down by CoreWeave, which fell 36.9% following its $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific — a deal that was poorly received by public investors.13 (Note: Forge continues to calculate performance of newly public companies as part of our performance methodology through the expiration of their lock-up periods.)
The Fintech basket also continued its positive momentum, rising 8.1% in July after a standout 44.8% gain in June. Key drivers included Ramp, which raised $500 million at a $22.5 billion valuation14 (+36.8%), and Kraken, which is reportedly exploring a $500 million raise at a $15 billion valuation15 40%).
| Forge Thematic Basket Performances | L1M | QTD | L3M | YTD | L12M |
| Artificial Intelligence (AI) basket | -4.2% | -4.2% | 7.3% | 56.3% | 111.3% |
| Aerospace & Defense basket | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 27.3% | 60.7% |
| Chips basket | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 57.1% |
| Consumer basket | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | -0.7% |
| Cybersecurity basket | -0.8% | -0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 12.7% |
| Fintech basket | 8.1% | 8.1% | 57.9% | 110.4% | 136.0% |
Forge Data through 7/31/25
Buy-side activity rose modestly in July
Buy-side interest as a percentage of total platform interest increased to 65% in July, up from 64% in June. Although this remains below the recent high reached in December 2024, the data reflects a modest upward trend since October 2022. It is not yet clear whether this trajectory will persist, but recent movement may indicate shifting sentiment among prospective buyers.
Bid-Ask methodology undergoing revamp
Note, due to changes in the way users submit indications of interest (IOIs) on Forge’s marketplace, the methodology for calculating aggregate bid-ask spread is being revisited.
Spread widens at the extremes as premiums and discounts diverge sharply
Market dynamics for pricing of private company shares in July were most pronounced at the extremes of the distribution, with notable movement in both the 90th and 10th percentiles—reference chart below.
At the top end, the 90th percentile premium rose significantly—from 57% in June to 70% in July—indicating that the most sought-after private shares are commanding increasingly strong markups. Meanwhile, mid-tier valuations (75th, 50th and 25th percentiles) remained largely stable, showing little deviation month over month.
The most dramatic shift occurred at the bottom of the curve: 10th percentile discounts deepened from -47% to -74%, suggesting a sharp decline in pricing for the least in-demand or most distressed assets.
As the embers of prior years cool, the private market ecosystem is now showing more than just signs of life — it’s signaling that resilience and adaptation can spark a new growth cycle. With Q2 2025 delivering the highest number of new unicorns in nearly three years, sector leadership broadening beyond AI and July’s private market gains outpacing public benchmarks, the data points to an environment where innovation is again finding fertile ground.
Still, the private market’s resurgence is not without its nuances. Valuation premiums at the high end are rising, discounts for distressed names are widening and buy-side appetite—while trending upward—remains measured. Together, these factors suggest a private market in transition: one that is competitive for the best opportunities, selective for others.
In other words, the private market has not yet fully regrown to its heyday of yesteryear, but green shoots for a promising tomorrow are increasingly apparent. For investors, private company leaders and operators alike, this is a moment to watch closely — and perhaps a time for them to plant new seeds of their own.
About the Author
Lindsay Riddell, EVP of Corporate Marketing and Communications at Forge, has over 20 years of experience in tech and finance. She specializes in developing content strategies that drive brand engagement and business growth. Her background in journalism enhances her ability to create clear, impactful narratives that resonate with diverse audiences. Read more from Lindsay.
